Sunday, July 13, 2014

Mitt Romney 2016?

This week in the news, Utah Congressman Jason Chaffetz, one of my favorites, proclaimed that Mitt will run again in 2016, and this time he will win. -1. Some may be surprised to hear me say this, with as angry as I was when we lost in 2012, but it could happen, and Mitt could have my support again, though I am so far quite intrigued by Doctor Ben Carson, but we will discuss him later.

Mitt won’t get an immediate endorsement from me this time though. He got it after Ron Paul was defeated, but this time he is going to need to work harder. You see, unlike the hacks that work in Washington DC, I know the real reason we lost in 2012 had nothing to do with a Democratic block voting Democratic. We lost because 3 million registered Conservative Republicans sat out the elections. It is interesting to analyze this election and learn the following; Romney won with Independents by huge margins. Romney increased the Black Youth vote for Republicans. Romney saw a ten point shift of the Jewish voter toward Republicans. But where he lost was with his own party’s base.

Personally, I think if Romney had kept the same heat on Obama he applied during the first debate he’d have won. He did okay in the second debate, but in the third debate he seemed to roll over and play dead. Chris Christi’s traitorous bear hug didn't help matters either.

But Romney’s biggest mistake was assuming that the Wall Street faction of the GOP is it’s base. He played very well to them, and ideologically, we main street Republicans agree with much of what our Wall Street counterparts report to believe, limited government, etc. But at the same time, many of us are having trouble finding work, even as the unemployment U3 number has dropped to the low 6%’s, the labor force participation rate remains abnormally low, and some 92 million Americans remain out of work, or under employed, meaning  that the unemployment rate has been lowered by people no longer qualifying for unemployment insurance, or giving up looking for work. The “Real” unemployment rate remains around 12%. Lower than it has been, yes, but still not good. This according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics-2
What jobs have been created have been lower paying than those jobs lost. Meanwhile we continue to experience inflation that no one wants to talk about. Gas is headed toward $4.00 a gallon again, meanwhile politicians are discussing raising gas taxes. Our income is lower, taxes are increasing, Tooele alone had a tax increase of nearly 70%, and now the school boards are wanting to tack on an additional 19%. The downward pressure on our wages from numerous directions, and the upward pressure on our cost of living is creating a great deal of unrest. Romney did not adequately address this in 2012, he needs to be prepared to address it should he run again in 2016.

Meanwhile, the crisis on the border has revealed a simple truth about the illegal immigration arguments. Our border IS NOT secure. Until it is, all other discussions about how to deal with illegal immigrants must cease. It is completely obnoxious to have the Chamber of Commerce still pushing for a pathway to voter registration… err… I mean to citizenship (so they can vote Democrat, of course) at a time when the weakness on the border has been made more clear than ever before. The Wall Street Republicans have, by consequence of their reprehensible behavior, revealed that they are more interested in bypassing the minimum wage than the overall health of the party. Romney needs to be prepared to deal with the reality that the fissure in the GOP is not Tea Party, Libertarian vs Establishment. There are plenty of good folks in the Establishment we love, like Jason Chaffetz, who need not worry about so called challenges from the Right. 

The real battle is between the super-rich Wall Street Republicans, who are few in number, but whose money is desperately needed, and the much larger Main Street Republicans, who are millions in number, and can destroy an election by staying home, as we (not me personally) did in 2012. Right now, with some of his more recent commentaries on key issues, Romney is on the wrong side of this fence. If he does not square himself with the main street Republicans, he is doomed to repeat 2012. On the other side of the coin, he must bridge that gap, or he will be pretty much funding his campaign by himself. He can do that by focusing ion border security. The situation is clearly out of control. He can offer to defer the remaining discussions about what to do with those who broke the law to get here until later, but if he continues to push for Amnesty, lock in step with the Chamber of Darth Commerce, he won’t even get the nomination.

Mike Leavitt, Utah's own Little Finger
Lastly is the matter of Senator Mike Lee. Unlike Utah’s left wing and nutty news papers, I actually get outside and talk to the folks. People in the state of Utah, outside Salt Lake County (largely Democratic territory anyway) love Mike Lee. Rumors persist of a challenge from either Mike Leavitt (Utah’s own Petyr Baelish) or Romney’s son, Josh Romney. Mitt cannot allow for this. This will further divide and fracture internal relationships within the party. Already, Utah’s GOP activist community is beyond angry with Mitt for backing the Count my Money… err… vote initiative where Utah’s elite sought to buy their way into positions of power by toppling the community building Caucus system. The great lie was that by going to easily bought Primary systems that this will increase voter participation. And yet the only place where a primary saw an increase in voter participation was in Virginia to oust Cantor, otherwise voter participation remains at disappointing numbers all over the country. Primaries continue to decline. Furthermore, Utah’s activists are hoping to push the Utah State Legislature to repeal the so called “compromise” bill which allowed the Buy My Vote 30 (30 because there were only 30 people actually funding the movement, all super rich Wall Street Republicans) a bypass of our caucus. I don’t know if it will happen, probably not, but I hope it does and Romney had better be on the right side of that battle, or count on Utah’s activist community backing someone else.

I have been on record before saying the Tea Party was never huge here. That is true. That does not, however, mean that we don’t have a large activist community. We have many, the Young Republicans, West Side Matters, The Teenage Republicans, Libertas, and many more. None of which can be labeled “Tea Party,” but they are well organized, and can make a campaign with their support, or break one by sitting it out. We are many. And Mitt needs us. But we like Mike, and Mitt had better become aware of that, and quick. Mike Leavitt is not “main stream.” He is an out of touch super rich Wall Streeter who has no idea what we, the poor and downtrodden, are going through. Mike Lee does, and we appreciate that. We need Conservative solutions to address poverty in America, and Mike Lee seems to be the only Republican willing to address that. The poor will ensure he wins, no matter how much cheating and rigging of the system Leavitt does.

We do like Josh Romney, however. We would like to see him get elected to the States’ legislature, and maybe Governor someday, but replace Mike Lee? Umm, no. That would be a good way to destroy the activist community’s good will toward Josh.

Lastly, the media did a great job of painting Mitt Romney as being out of touch with America. This was because he hired staffers, and strategists that have been in Washington DC forever, and have lost us several elections, including John McCain’s. By now, it should be clear to everyone that the only people these strategists can elect is Democrats. They need to be fired, and in an outside the box moment, folks like myself, hired. We have had our boots and ears to the ground for years. We know what the people want, we know what they need. We also know that Washington DC is a bubble that has isolated itself from the rest of us. If Mitt wants to win in 2016 he needs to tap the Main Street Republican base, and not repeat the 2012 mistake of relying on Wall Street.  

For a more detailed analysis of the 2012 election, check out my book, here: The Great Compromise

-1: Jason Chaffetz: Mitt Romney will run — and win, By NICK GASS | 7/7/14, www.,, Accessed 7/13/14

-2: Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization, accessed 7/13/14

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